- The Margins: Obama is almost guaranteed to win in Washington and Louisiana. As I wrote on Wednesday, the Illinois senator leads in Washington fundraising ($1.7 million to less than $1 million for Clinton), endorsements (governor Christine Gregoire, all the major newspapers) and polls (by 22 points among likely caucusgoers in the latest survey), plus the state’s upscale, highly-educated demographic (former Deaniacs!) and caucus system play to his strengths. Clinton visited on Thursday, but that probably won’t be enough. In Louisiana, the Democratic primary electorate is 46 percent black–and Obama has been winning more than 80 percent of the African-American vote. Enough said. Nebraska may be a little tighter–or maybe not. Clinton has the backing of former Sen. Bob Kerrey; Obama has current Sen. Ben Nelson. That’s a draw. But Obama crushed his rival in every Plains State or western caucus so far–Kansas, Colorado, Idaho, North Dakota, Utah. So expectations are high.
Which is sort of bad for Obama. If he wins big, that’s what everyone expected. No big deal. But if Clinton does better than the pundits are predicting, it could dull the luster of his golds. Hence the next item on our list…
The Headlines: I’m curious to see how this will play in the press. So far, neither the New York Times nor CNN have prominent headlines on their websites. There’s a weird rule in the MSM: the outcome of a contest is only important if it’s surprising. So it’ll be hard for Obama to emerge with any real momentum. Everyone’s waiting for Texas and Ohio on March 4. That said…
The Delegates: It’s not about momentum anymore–it’s about delegates. And there are about 200 at stake today. If Clinton hits 30 or 35 percent, she’ll get her fair share. But Obama stands to gain more–perhaps as many as he could’ve won in New Jersey (a Super Tuesday state that’s received more attention from the chatterati than Washington, which awards nearly as many delegates). Whatever the headlines say, that’s good news for Obama.
Oh, and what about the U.S. Virgin Islands? On Tuesday, Clinton captured another island chain randomly associated with the United States: American Samoa. So I wouldn’t bet against her.
