Abbas (also known as Abu Mazen) is a brave leader who has argued that the recourse to terrorism has been a disaster for the Palestinians. His Finance minister is cleaning up the cesspool of corruption that is the Palestinian Authority. He has asked a new security chief to centralize and tame the dozen, often competing, militias that pass for Palestinian police forces. But it was he who probably kept the photograph with Sharon out of circulation for fear of looking like an Israeli stooge. Abbas needs credibility, power and stature. America, Arab countries and Israel must help because his boss, Yasir Arafat, will not.
The most important person who will not be at any of the meetings this week is, of course, Arafat. And make no mistake, Arafat will try to derail this peace process. He has absolutely no incentive to see Abu Mazen succeed. He will try to keep his fingers in the operations of the Palestinian Authority, in particular in controlling the security forces. The day that Arafat swore Abu Mazen into office, he set up a new national-security council, with himself as chairman, controlling all matters related to law and order. He will thwart the efforts to crack down on terror. He might even encourage some groups to engage in low-level terror. The message Arafat will try to send the world is “Abu Mazen is a nice guy but he can’t deliver. If you want to deal with the Palestinians, you have to deal with Arafat.”
The only path to peace is one that sidelines Arafat. It would be best not to do so publicly, which would only brand him as the leader who defies the Israelis and Americans. Better to ignore him but systematically weaken his power. The summit will be a good start. Its principal effect will be to elevate Abu Mazen, who will be seen throughout the world–in the company of George W. Bush, Hosni Mubarak, King Abdullah and others–as the leader of the Palestinian people. If the Arab leaders in particular treat him with honor and give him material support, it will translate into stature back home. Much of Arafat’s domestic legitimacy stemmed from the fact that he represented the Palestinian cause in the world. That’s why he spent so much time flying to foreign capitals, reviewing honor guards and embracing presidents and prime ministers. And that is why it is deeply destructive to the peace process for European leaders to continue to accord him respect and attention. A senior White House official told me that the Bush administration has asked every foreign leader who visits Israel–including the French–to stop meeting with Arafat.
But the administration and the Israeli government will have to do a lot more to help make Abu Mazen a true partner. “In order to be able to deliver for the Israelis, first he has to be able to deliver for the Palestinians,” says Martin Indyk, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. Sharon recognizes this and has begun to withdraw Israeli troops from some Palestinian territories, and to release prisoners. He should also dismantle some of the roadblocks and military checkpoints that have become a symbol of the day-to-day misery of the Palestinians. The more difficult step will be to help the Palestinian security service rebuild and reform. (The last time Israel did this, Arafat allowed the guns to be used against Israelis.) But it is inevitable. If Israel does not want to police the Palestinian territories, it has to help the Palestinians do it themselves. Arab leaders, for their part, can stop the flow of money to Hamas and Islamic Jihad.
Abu Mazen needs guns but he also needs money. His Finance minister, Salam Fayad, has reformed the Palestinian Authority’s finances so that they are now audited by two international accounting firms. The Israelis have been impressed enough by the changes that they are releasing Palestinian tax revenues, long held in escrow, to him. The United States should also channel its aid to Fayad rather than as is now the case, through the U.S. Agency for International Development. If he’s good enough for the Israelis, surely he’s good enough for us.
For Abu Mazen to succeed, he must crack down on terror. But to do so he needs broad support among his people. Palestinians need to look up to him as their leader. They must see their lives improving under his rule. They must believe that he can get the Israelis to ease the occupation. If he fails, the perennial survivor, Yasir Arafat, is waiting in the wings, ready for yet another close-up.
